The "Rat Race" Competition Continues to Intensify as Iron Ore Prices First Weaken Then Strengthen [SMM Brief Review]

Dalian iron ore futures showed a weak-then-strong trend today, with the most-traded contract I2601 finally closing at 789.5, up slightly by 0.77% from the previous working day. Traders demonstrated active selling enthusiasm; however, steel mills' purchase willingness declined as the weekend approached. Market transaction atmosphere remained moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines stood at 780-783 yuan/mt, down by 0-2 yuan/mt from yesterday's levels. In Tangshan, PB fines traded around 790-795 yuan/mt, holding steady compared to the previous day.
The "anti-rat race" discussion continued to gain traction today, driving overall price increases across ferrous metals. Looking ahead to next week, the iron ore market is expected to exhibit robust supply and demand dynamics. From a macro perspective, heightened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts will provide additional support to ore prices, which are projected to hold up well in the short term. Caution is warranted against potential downside risks stemming from weakening apparent steel demand, accelerating inventory accumulation, and crude steel production control policies.